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Galaxy predicts 74% Bitcoin price increase first year after ETF launch


Bitcoin’s (BTC) price will increase 74.1% in the first year after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are launched in the United States, according to estimates from crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital.

In an Oct. 24 blog post, Galaxy Digital research associate Charles Yu estimated the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs would be $14.4 trillion in the first year after launch. He obtained the 74% figure by assessing the potential price impact of fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF products using gold ETFs as a baseline.

According to Yu’s estimates, Bitcoin’s price would increase 6.2% in the first month after an ETF launch before steadily trending downward to a 3.7% monthly increase by month 12.

Spot Bitcoin ETF estimated one-year inflows by month and Bitcoin price impact. Source: Galaxy Digital Research

Yu used Bitcoin price data from Sept. 30, but a 74.1% increase in Bitcoin’s current price would see it hit $59,200.

Markus Thielen, head of research at digital asset financial services firm Matrixport, reached a similar figure in an Oct. 19 post, estimating Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.

Yu predicts the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs’ addressable market size to reach $26.5 trillion in the second year after launch and $39.6 trillion after the third year.

Spot Bitcoin ETF market sizing and inflow estimates over the first three years. Source: Galaxy Digital Research

Related: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: How it works, its benefits and opportunities

Yu acknowledged that a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs would impact its price prediction.

However, he said the estimates were still conservative and didn’t factor in “second-order effects” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

“In the near-term, we expect other global/international markets to follow the U.S. in approving + offering similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to a wider population of investors,” Yu wrote.

He added, “2024 could be a big year for Bitcoin,” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and “the possibility that rates have peaked or will peak in the near term.”

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